Looking to the Future

"Those that understand that we need to defend Mother Earth and embrace sustainable development need to step up and embrace the challenges of the future," Grand Chief Stewart Phillip of the Union of B.C. Indian Chiefs.

I am having a hard time discerning where to go next regarding our environment. So much of what seems to be coming appears to be so bad, who wants to think about it? But we have all experienced, many times, the generosity and resilience of the human spirit and the grace of God in times of adversity. I look forward to more of those experiences.

But we need to prepare for what is to come. It is time to act, but "don't just do something, sit there." I need a vision of where we want to go. I think it would be useful to repeat Ken's past exercise of envisioning the future. A lot has changed since then. Many climate related changes are occurring, sooner and to a greater extent than predicted by earlier models. The magnitude of the changes that are occurring, and our lack of understanding the causes and consequences of complex, interrelated environmental systems, and the resulting economic consequences mean none of us has a clear understanding of what the future holds. Compounding these challenges, the political system we have relied upon to address our common good is clearly not functioning well. And the attitude of business has changed to regard profits as supreme, even at the expense of employees and the environment.

It seems likely that some changes will occur very rapidly, and chaos will ensue. Specifically, running out of fossil fuel and natural gas will result in rapid increases in energy prices that could result in economic collapse within a very short period of time.

We need to be preparing now. What will we do when there is a dramatic increase in the already unacceptable number of people don't have any income because of skyrocketing unemployment due to widespread business failures, and the likely decrease in funding for social support programs? How to respond to global disruption of transportation, food, water, manufacturing, communication, education and healthcare? How do we diversify ourselves? When every living being is affected, why are we not engaged beyond our usual circles? Indigenous peoples are "Idle No More" (the name of the movement of native people in Canada and the US opposing tar sands extraction and fracking). Why haven't we joined them?

I will attempt a first draft of a vision of the future here. Because this is so complex and uncertain, I hope you will contribute to this vision, as it needs all the help it can get.

Fossil fuel supplies, which are nonrenewable, are rapidly being depleted, and remaining sources are more difficult to extract. Simple supply and demand will soon result in a permanent, rapid increase in the price of oil, natural gas, and water supplies that are available, then complete unavailability of some of these resources. Many businesses will close in response, and the economy will further devolve. We need to re-learn life skills related to food production and preservation, since we will no longer be able to obtain processed foods.

Unfortunately, continued demand will result in increasing pressure for fracking and tar sands extraction. It remains to be seen whether the horrors of such mining methods finally awaken enough of a public reaction to stop them. Even if we fail, and those practices are allowed to continue, those supplies will not extend the supply of fossil fuels much longer. Alternative energy sources are being developed, but the ability to continue to do so will be negatively impacted by sharply increasing energy and water costs, and the difficulty in obtaining, with toxic side effects, the rare metals needed to manufacture electronic, solar and wind devices.

We also need to create an employment model that connects people who need work, to industries and services our communities need. We need to have a way to pay people to help care for the sick and elderly, mentor school children and out of school youth, clean up our cities and towns, repair infrastructure, and produce local food and products.

One can easily imagine the consequences of fuel prices of well over $100.00 a gallon. Public transportation systems will be overwhelmed by a sudden increase in demand. Personal automobiles will rarely be seen traveling long distances. What will be done with all the useless vehicles, parking structures and roads? Food and material transportation will decrease dramatically. Container ships will greatly reduce or stop transoceanic operations. Air travel will be prohibitively expensive. People won't be able to afford to heat their homes, resulting in cutting woods for fires and stimulating migration to areas with more moderate temperatures. Those who remain will move into multi-tenant buildings that can be heated more efficiently than individual homes, greatly increasing demand for such housing, and leaving behind vast numbers of abandoned individual homes. Business will return to smaller, local stores.

Rising ocean levels will displace millions now living in coastal areas. There may also be some reversal of the migration we have seen from rural areas to cities, as people look for ways to produce their own food and materials, and move nearer to sources of wood for heat and water. Alternatively, most living in cities will either plant gardens or setup hydroponics or other urban farming methods.

Two different scenarios, or both, seem possible. One is to work to help existing cities and towns to adapt to these changing conditions. Developing and implementing plans for improved communities, with multi-tenant, multi-generational housing, local businesses, community based schools, and community events is needed. I know some of us have become involved in organizations such as Iowa Citizens for Community Improvement. Here in Indianapolis (non-government) community organizations such as People for Urban Progress are becoming very important in community development. I've begun spending time at the KI Eco Center, a community center with a hydroponic system, school, and which hosts community discussions of issues related to social justice, the environment, and other community concerns. This is the direction I think our work should continue to move in.

Greatly expanded inter- and intra-city public transportation systems are going to be essential. I'm glad the Yearly Meeting approved a letter to Governor Branstad, for example, urging funding of expanded passenger rail service in Iowa.

Plans have to be developed to put those who are unemployed to work providing needed community services. We need a new economic model that rewards providing services, and a system that connects needs to services, especially when current government funded agencies are no longer functioning. I'd like to see us develop ways to offer opportunities to our neighbors who are out of work, to help us with our work. Can we find ways to foster the exchange of work and services for our mutual benefit? Instead of contributing money to organizations, should some of that money be used to employ our neighbors?

The second alternative is to work on building communities physically close to meetinghouses, since transportation will be an issue. That would not only be to make it possible to attend meeting for worship and other meeting functions, but also for mutual support related to food, housing, healthcare, education, and recreation. We have all had experience with communities and the challenges and rewards of trying to make them work. As land near our meetinghouses becomes available, we should consider how that might be used in this case. I know when land recently became available near Bear Creek, for example, its purchase for these reasons was considered by the meeting. It might take the combined efforts of all the monthly meetings in the Yearly Meeting to be able to purchase one piece of land.

Another possibility would be to expand Scattergood Friends School and Farm to include an intentional adult community. The Possibility Alliance in Missouri could be another alternative.

Much of this relates to "materialism". This is an opportunity for a general re-evaluation of our values, and the improvement of social justice. I hope you will offer your ideas about this.

Thank you,

Jeff